| Bioterrorism - | | | | It would take a lot of time to release |
| | | | significant amountsof anthrax using this |
| Which weapon are terrorists most likely to | | | | approach, and the US Air Forcewould eliminate |
| use? | | | | the threat very quickly. |
| | | | |
| It's impossible to predict with any degree | | | | It's worth remembering that you would need to |
| ofcertainty what approach a terrorist group | | | | inhalelarge amounts of anthrax before it |
| mightuse to launch a chemical or biological | | | | becomes fatal. Toput things in perspective, |
| attack. | | | | wool sorters inhale up to |
| | | | |
| This is what makes it such a frightening | | | | 700 anthrax spores every hour without any |
| threat. | | | | consequences -in order for anthrax to reach |
| | | | lethal levels, you'd needto inhale up to |
| It can be anywhere, anytime and in any number | | | | 10,000 spores with every breath. |
| offorms. | | | | |
| | | | If the terrorists were to use anthrax, they |
| However, there are some clues available to us | | | | would mostlikely release it inside a building |
| whichcan help us understand a little more | | | | where a denseconcentration of the agent can |
| about the mostlikely approach. | | | | be more easily achieved. |
| | | | |
| Nerve agents (like Sarin) and vesicant agents | | | | While this approach would create considerable |
| (like | | | | fear andpanic, the casualties would be |
| | | | minimized because thoseaffected could get |
| Mustard gas) are relatively difficult to | | | | immediate medical treatment. Again,such an |
| produce. | | | | attack would be quite difficult to trigger |
| | | | off. |
| The Chemical Weapons Convention makes it hard | | | | |
| tobuy these agents and the ingredients needed | | | | Another, perhaps more likely, scenario is |
| to producethem. This probably rules these two | | | | that theterrorists would initiate the spread |
| categories out. | | | | of a contagiousdisease. This would most |
| | | | likely happen unnoticed. Onlywhen more and |
| On the other hand, a chemical such as | | | | more people start exhibiting the samesymptoms |
| phosgene | | | | would the alarm be raised. By then the |
| | | | diseasemay have spread very considerably. |
| (a choking agent), is easy to find and | | | | |
| produce. | | | | If there's no treatment available for the |
| | | | disease, orif it were a new, more resistant |
| However, choking agents are volatile and | | | | strain of an existingdisease, then the fear, |
| thereforedisperse quickly in the air. This | | | | panic and death objectives ofthe terrorist |
| means that the terroristswould have to | | | | would be achieved. |
| deliver it in a high concentration tohave the | | | | |
| effect of maximum impact they'd be aiming | | | | Smallpox would appear to be a prime candidate |
| for. | | | | in thiscategory. However, there are only two |
| | | | living samples ofsmallpox available in the |
| A possible scenario in this case would be to | | | | world. One in a securelaboratory the US and |
| blow upa tanker full of the gas (or a | | | | one in Russia. Even though thereare some |
| chemicals plant) in abusy area. | | | | concerns over security at the Russian |
| | | | laboratory,it's still unlikely that the |
| This, however, introduces complications for | | | | terrorists will attempt tosteal the sample |
| theterrorists. They would need to smuggle a | | | | and launch a smallpox attack. |
| large bombinto a chemical plant or drive a | | | | |
| tanker full of toxicchemicals into a densely | | | | It's more likely that they would take the |
| populated area and then blowit up. With the | | | | easier routeand spread a contagious disease |
| nation on high alert, one would expectthat | | | | like bubonic plague. |
| such attacks would be very difficult to | | | | |
| execute. | | | | Such an attack would be cheap and easy to |
| | | | launch and wouldcreate considerable panic |
| It's possible that terrorists would use | | | | among the general population. |
| anthrax in anattack. If so, a conceivable | | | | |
| approach would be the use ofa crop-duster. | | | | While the effects of such an attack would be |
| Why? Because anthrax isn't contagious | | | | very traumatic,the emergency services should |
| | | | be able to move quite quicklyto get the |
| (it doesn't spread easily from person to | | | | situation under control. |
| person) likemost other biological agents. | | | | |
| This means that they wouldneed to directly | | | | Experience tells us that, whatever approach |
| spread the bacteria onto as many peopleas | | | | the terroristsuse, two things are sure: they |
| possible. | | | | will aim to create maximumfear and |
| | | | intimidation and they will aim for a target |
| However, while the thought of anthrax being | | | | wherethey can cause maximum symbolic and |
| poured downonto a city from a passing | | | | material destruction. |
| airplane is chilling, it'sunlikely to happen. | | | | |
| | | | That is, after all, the nature of terrorism. |