| Bioterrorism - | | | | fatal. Toput things in perspective, wool sorters inhale |
| Which weapon are terrorists most likely to use? | | | | up to |
| It's impossible to predict with any degree ofcertainty | | | | 700 anthrax spores every hour without any |
| what approach a terrorist group mightuse to launch a | | | | consequences -in order for anthrax to reach lethal |
| chemical or biological attack. | | | | levels, you'd needto inhale up to 10,000 spores with |
| This is what makes it such a frightening threat. | | | | every breath. |
| It can be anywhere, anytime and in any number | | | | If the terrorists were to use anthrax, they would |
| offorms. | | | | mostlikely release it inside a building where a |
| However, there are some clues available to us | | | | denseconcentration of the agent can be more easily |
| whichcan help us understand a little more about the | | | | achieved. |
| mostlikely approach. | | | | While this approach would create considerable fear |
| Nerve agents (like Sarin) and vesicant agents (like | | | | andpanic, the casualties would be minimized because |
| Mustard gas) are relatively difficult to produce. | | | | thoseaffected could get immediate medical |
| The Chemical Weapons Convention makes it hard | | | | treatment. Again,such an attack would be quite |
| tobuy these agents and the ingredients needed to | | | | difficult to trigger off. |
| producethem. This probably rules these two | | | | Another, perhaps more likely, scenario is that |
| categories out. | | | | theterrorists would initiate the spread of a |
| On the other hand, a chemical such as phosgene | | | | contagiousdisease. This would most likely happen |
| (a choking agent), is easy to find and produce. | | | | unnoticed. Onlywhen more and more people start |
| However, choking agents are volatile and | | | | exhibiting the samesymptoms would the alarm be |
| thereforedisperse quickly in the air. This means that | | | | raised. By then the diseasemay have spread very |
| the terroristswould have to deliver it in a high | | | | considerably. |
| concentration tohave the effect of maximum impact | | | | If there's no treatment available for the disease, orif |
| they'd be aiming for. | | | | it were a new, more resistant strain of an |
| A possible scenario in this case would be to blow upa | | | | existingdisease, then the fear, panic and death |
| tanker full of the gas (or a chemicals plant) in abusy | | | | objectives ofthe terrorist would be achieved. |
| area. | | | | Smallpox would appear to be a prime candidate in |
| This, however, introduces complications for | | | | thiscategory. However, there are only two living |
| theterrorists. They would need to smuggle a large | | | | samples ofsmallpox available in the world. One in a |
| bombinto a chemical plant or drive a tanker full of | | | | securelaboratory the US and one in Russia. Even |
| toxicchemicals into a densely populated area and then | | | | though thereare some concerns over security at the |
| blowit up. With the nation on high alert, one would | | | | Russian laboratory,it's still unlikely that the terrorists |
| expectthat such attacks would be very difficult to | | | | will attempt tosteal the sample and launch a smallpox |
| execute. | | | | attack. |
| It's possible that terrorists would use anthrax in | | | | It's more likely that they would take the easier |
| anattack. If so, a conceivable approach would be the | | | | routeand spread a contagious disease like bubonic |
| use ofa crop-duster. Why? Because anthrax isn't | | | | plague. |
| contagious | | | | Such an attack would be cheap and easy to launch |
| (it doesn't spread easily from person to person) | | | | and wouldcreate considerable panic among the |
| likemost other biological agents. This means that they | | | | general population. |
| wouldneed to directly spread the bacteria onto as | | | | While the effects of such an attack would be very |
| many peopleas possible. | | | | traumatic,the emergency services should be able to |
| However, while the thought of anthrax being poured | | | | move quite quicklyto get the situation under control. |
| downonto a city from a passing airplane is chilling, | | | | Experience tells us that, whatever approach the |
| it'sunlikely to happen. | | | | terroristsuse, two things are sure: they will aim to |
| It would take a lot of time to release significant | | | | create maximumfear and intimidation and they will aim |
| amountsof anthrax using this approach, and the US | | | | for a target wherethey can cause maximum symbolic |
| Air Forcewould eliminate the threat very quickly. | | | | and material destruction. |
| It's worth remembering that you would need to | | | | That is, after all, the nature of terrorism. |
| inhalelarge amounts of anthrax before it becomes | | | | |